This short analysis couldn’t have been produced without the 14 years relationship I have with one of my best friends from Gabon. He still lives at the capital Libreville.
Overview:
It all started with BREAKING NEWS: GabonCoup Soldiers overthrow newly re-elected Ali Bongo. But as most of us, we’d never heard of the country! Well, Gabon is a small country with enormous mineral resources.
The entire population of Gabon is half of Nairobi at 2.4 million people. They are also Africa’s 7th largest oil producer. Which simply state: there is no reason for any Gabonese to be poor.
My friend texted me last night “this coup hopefully rids of the ruling comprador party of the PDG”. The PDG is the single party ruling Gabon, it holds a sheer majority and is liberal conservative. Similar to Japan’s LDP, the PDG came about via direct Western interference. French soldiers directly intervened to stabilize and maintain the PDG after an attempted coup of its leader in 1964.
Summary:
Ali Bongo took over power in 2009 after the death of his father Omar Bongo. Gabon’s former President Omar Bongo had 70 bank accounts, 39 apartments, 2 Ferraris, 6 Mercedes Benz cars, 3 Porsches and a Bugatti in France. He ruled for 42 years (from 1967 to 2009). His son, Ali Bongo has been President since 2009.
The Bongo dynasty had ruled Gabon for over 56 years till 2023. In the last few hours of today’s, August 31, the internet has been restored, and i got to hear my friend’s voice again; with massive jubilation in streets of Gabon capital Libreville; mostly young people celebrating the fall of Bongo dynasty.
Gabon President Ali Bongo Ondimba, who’s 64, was overthrown this morning, confirmed, via a recording from his villa, published on Twitter (X), that he is under house arrest and calling for the international community ‘to make noise’ about the coup in his country. My friend once told me, ‘This is the same guy who is alleged to have imported snow to Gabon for his son to have a snowy Christmas”. Tides do turn, don’t they?”.
With titles like “France neocolonialism in Africa is down” across the capital, both France 24 radio and Radio France international have been suspended.
Analysis:
The fact is that the leader of the coup, General Brice Oligui Nguema, job title is (was) head of the Republican Guard, now announced as the “president in transit” has close connections with the U.S.
The authorities in the United States have been supporting Nguema for several years, preparing him for the next elections, in which he was supposed to win and take over after Ali Bongo. Moreover, three years ago, details of the Nguema’s ownership of three houses in the US, bought with cash in the state of Maryland, was leaked online. The funny part is that the CIA was investigating the thing.
Oh and by the way, this is a no-new news to the people of Gabon, General Brice Oligui Nguema, is a relative of ousted President Ali Bongo and has until this morning been the Commander of the Presidential Guard. So the argument of "but his relatives control the army so he can’t be ousted", won’t do.
But why did a pro-American general overthrow a pro-French president?
As it seems, the US government thinks that the French authorities are no longer able to effectively protect the interests of the collective West, including the USA, on the territory under their control.
Therefore, Washington decided to take matters into its own hands and seize the initiative from the French. It is unlikely that the French authorities will go for an escalation in relations with the US because of Gabon.
Macron most likely will just swallow it. French intelligence is only tasked with dealing with the transfer of Ali Bongo and his family to a prison in Morocco, and their subsequent release, after the president is convicted in Gabon. Also, France is preparing for an evacuation as of the past few hours.
What struck my curiosity , is that, the French business is going to leave Gabon after the coup, which was not the case, for example, in Niger where the uranium company Orano continues to operate there. Eramet (a french mining company) already announced a pause to their operations. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were forced to pull out. Of course, anything I write is just baseless speculation.
I can say for certain, this will damage French influence, and after the events of Niger it doesn’t bode well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were inspired. Though I also must admit that election fraud did play a role in this coup. Maybe they’ll just transition and move on like nothing happened with fairer elections?
Even after independence, France still forces 14 of its former colonies to pay colonial taxes for the ‘benefits of colonization’. A quote, a famous one, and can be found online: "without Africa, France will slide down into the rank of a third [world] power." - Former French President Jacques Chirac
As we continue to discuss Coups in Africa, here is a list of the 5 longest Africa presidents:
1. Teodoro Obiang (E.G) -43yrs
2. Paul Biya (Cameroon) -40yrs
2. Ssasou Nguesso (R. Congo) -38yrs
4. Yoweri Museveni (Uganda) -36yrs
5. Isaias Afwerki (Eritrea) -29yrs
Other African countries and thier relation with France:
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Burkina Faso notified France of the termination of the 1965 tax treaty between the two countries. The treaty had allowed French companies and citizens to avoid paying taxes on their income in Burkina Faso.
The decision was made by the transitional government of Burkina Faso, which came to power in September 2022.
The government said the treaty is unfair to Burkina Faso and that it has allowed France to benefit disproportionately from the country’s economic resources. The termination of the tax treaty is the latest sign of decolonization moves by Burkina Faso and is seen as a major blow to France’s economic interests in the country.
Moreover, just yesterday, August 30, 2023, the Cameroon president Paul BIYA just shared documents ordering a reshuffle in his top military commanders hours after the military coup in Gabon, via Twitter. This indicate, it may happen soon in Cameroon, and Uganda and Equatorial Guinea.
What is a coup?
A coup is taking over power by force. You can make the argument that it wasn’t a coup d’état but a provincial coup because the goal wasn’t to remove british power from the entire empire, but saying it wasn’t a coup at all is rather silly.
I say this because, I have observed several threads online calling this is not a coup. I find that everyone who makes the argument of "not a coup" tries to come up with a definition of "coup" that specifically does not fit the USA with wildly different details that are supposedly relevant.
I even looked it up because I thought maybe someone has a point and no description of coup tries to make those exemptions. The vaguest reason I could see is that it wasn’t "sudden" and Cambridge seems to think that this is relevant, but most sources do not.
Conclusion
Forget Geopolitics. The African people are well-informed on the situation of leadership in their respective countries and they will confront any form of leadership that intends to continue to perpetually enslave them and loot their resources.
my friend told me “As a Gabonese person, who knows how this will go? It’s a miracle for the country to be rid of the Bongo family, who’ve indisputably been a despotic regime since independence. Celebrations in the streets right now in Gabon, I hope the military runs new elections and brings dignity back to the Republic”.
If history taught us anything: is military coups rarely end well for the population.
Thanks for reading!
Sam worked with notable organizations such as UNICEF, LinkedIn and Christ University, leading projects in UK, India, Tanzania, Iraq and Yemen. He’s the recipient of the “United Nations Africa Recognition Award” in 2018 for his work in the development sector and the recipient of “top voice” award from LinkedIn. Sam, often spends his time on the phone with his long-life partner and soon-to-be wife.
